Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa98c…7571 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
politics 28% −$8
sports 18% −$53
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 137 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 1% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 1% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 130
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage132d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $142 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $160 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $146 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 03 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $302 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $177 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $269 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $249 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $155 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $173 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $176 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $432 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $115 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $120 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $318 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 28d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $142 30d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $142 32d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $169 32d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $169 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $160 45d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $160 46d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 46d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 46d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $146 47d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $146 48d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $166 48d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $166 48d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $172 49d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $172 49d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $130 49d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $130 50d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $131 50d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $131 50d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $171 50d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $171 51d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $143 51d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $143 52d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $177 52d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $177 52d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $157 52d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $157 53d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $130 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 384 history records