Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa98e…443a other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+0%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$22
politics 25% −$13
sports 11% +$132
economics 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +7.3% -2.9% 14% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 8% -9.3%
10% -12.2% 8% -18.0%
15% -20.7% 5% -25.9%
20% -28.5% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×13.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage131d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $353 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $284 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $266 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $272 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $319 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $329 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $333 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $313 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,370 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $311 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $315 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $343 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $373 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $353 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $372 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,684 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $345 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 13 $353 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $306 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $577 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 12h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 12h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $38 4d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 4d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 8d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 8d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 9d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 9d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 20d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 22d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 23d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 23d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 23d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $348 24d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $349 26d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $368 26d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $369 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $284 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.97 · official $49.97 (match) · 402 history records