Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa98e…1f6b politics 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$14
other 38% −$11
sports 7% −$46
crypto 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 118 -5.4% -14.4% 8% 4% -9.8%
all 130 -3.8% -12.9% 10% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 6% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage117d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $178 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $336 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $145 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $158 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $397 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $802 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $174 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $358 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $202 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $367 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $615 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $199 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $367 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $162 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $154 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 22 $370 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 4h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 10h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 10h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 7d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 18d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $32 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.99 · official $34.99 (match) · 410 history records