Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa98f…d282 weather 1781 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized −$128 · open +$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate92%1576W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days−$334
14 days+$10
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$106
other 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 254 -1.5% -10.9% 89% 18% -12.3%
≤30d 951 +0.1% -9.5% 92% 20% -9.9%
≤90d 1712 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 18% -9.8%
all 1712 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 18% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$37 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2,798
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1576 / 136
Open positions69
Markets (closed)1712 / 1781
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 1712 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 88¢ 100¢ $119 $135 +$16 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? No 89¢ 99¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 20? No 89¢ 100¢ $58 $65 +$7 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 20? No 92¢ 100¢ $59 $64 +$5 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? No 86¢ 100¢ $55 $64 +$9 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $59 $63 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? No 95¢ 99¢ $60 $63 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 20? No 88¢ 100¢ $55 $63 +$7 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $58 $62 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $59 $62 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 20? No 89¢ 100¢ $55 $62 +$7 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 20? No 93¢ 97¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? No 95¢ 94¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 20? No 91¢ 100¢ $53 $58 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 20? No 93¢ 100¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? No 83¢ 86¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? No 92¢ 94¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? No 92¢ 95¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? No 84¢ 94¢ $51 $57 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20? No 86¢ 100¢ $49 $56 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 20 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 20 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 20 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 20 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19? Jun 20 $37 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? Jun 20 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $54 −$18 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $46 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$13 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $52 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $56 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $59 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $55 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $51 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $112 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $102 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $117 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $102 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $117 +$13 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $117 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? BUY No 85¢ $32 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 83¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 77¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $47 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 83¢ $56 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $35 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $37 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $49 9h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $47 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $61 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $56 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 65¢ $36 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 80¢ $46 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $57 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $59 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $55 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $61 13h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $54 13h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $55 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 86¢ $56 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $59 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $57 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,798.24 · official $2,798.25 (match) · 3500 history records