Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa990…9260 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-11%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -57.9% -61.9% 17% 17% -41.2%
≤30d 6 -57.9% -61.9% 17% 17% -41.2%
≤90d 6 -57.9% -61.9% 17% 17% -41.2%
all 6 -57.9% -61.9% 17% 17% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.9% 17% -41.2%
10% -65.6% 17% -46.8%
15% -68.9% 17% -52.0%
20% -72.0% 17% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$49 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $112 −$56 -50%
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$105 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $56 1h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $51 3h
Neymar Jr: 3+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $61 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 30h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 30h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 60¢ $16 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 60¢ $191 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records