Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A9 0xa99a…2a05 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+4%) realized +$58 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$56
other 21% +$2
politics 6% −$1
crypto 3% +$1
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 13 +127.9% +106.2% 62% 15% -4.1%
≤90d 13 +127.9% +106.2% 62% 15% -4.1%
all 43 +37.6% +24.5% 47% 5% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 5% -6.1%
10% +12.6% 5% -15.1%
15% +1.7% 5% -23.3%
20% -8.3% 5% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×18.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.29 per $1 lost it wins $25.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage398d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $90 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $143 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $175 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $57 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $52 +$47 +90%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $32 +$5 +16%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 09 $27 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $27 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $4 $0 -5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $27 $0 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files? Jun 01 $8 $0 -2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 31 $6 $0 -2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or higher on May May 30 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 23? May 24 $27 $0 +2%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $55 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $4 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $91 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $90 17h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $66 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $95 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $99 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $84 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $86 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $51 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $57 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $4 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $75 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $7 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $14 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $71 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.56 · official $92.95 (match) · 140 history records