Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa99b…297f other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+9%) realized +$36 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$58
sports 8% +$6
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.0% -14.1% 38% 38% +5.8%
≤30d 8 -5.0% -14.1% 38% 38% +5.8%
≤90d 8 -5.0% -14.1% 38% 38% +5.8%
all 8 -5.0% -14.1% 38% 38% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 38% +5.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 25% -4.3%
15% -29.8% 25% -13.6%
20% -36.7% 12% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$3 · ×7.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Under 64¢ 78¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $189 +$26 +14%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $8 $0 -6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$11 -56%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $26 −$1 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $105 +$43 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 30m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $79 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 46¢ $20 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 46¢ $42 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $106 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $105 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.29 · official $136.82 (match) · 24 history records