Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:40:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

A9 0xa9a1…f99e sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$285 (-31%) realized −$289 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip

Net edge-61%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day15.0pace

Fees−$17est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-57.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-53.0%	-57.4%	17%	17%	-53.0%
≤30d	6	-53.0%	-57.4%	17%	17%	-53.0%
≤90d	6	-53.0%	-57.4%	17%	17%	-53.0%
all	6	-53.0%	-57.4%	17%	17%	-53.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-57.4%	17%	-53.0%
10%	-61.5%	17%	-57.5%
15%	-65.2%	17%	-61.6%
20%	-68.6%	17%	-65.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -48% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -53% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$131 vs −$84 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.31 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$53

Realized−$289

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$17

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day15.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$50	$53	+$3 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$102	+$131	+128%
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5	Jun 29	$51	−$42	-82%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 29	$205	−$138	-67%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 29	$128	−$124	-97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan?	Jun 29	$71	−$69	-97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan?	Jun 29	$48	−$46	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to	BUY	32¢	$61	1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.	BUY	33¢	$200	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$232	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5	SELL Over	4¢	$9	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	1¢	$2	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	1¢	$4	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	16¢	$65	2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	32¢	$128	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	2¢	$71	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	5¢	$47	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5	BUY Over	21¢	$51	3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	24¢	$205	3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	43¢	$102	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.12 · official $308.98 · 15 history records