Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9a4…379f sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$505 (-46%) realized −$504 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$517
14 days−$513
30 days−$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$115
world 27% −$299
other 23% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -10.6% -19.1% 47% 47% -60.7%
≤30d 18 -7.3% -16.2% 50% 50% -59.7%
≤90d 18 -7.3% -16.2% 50% 50% -59.7%
all 18 -7.3% -16.2% 50% 50% -59.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 50% -59.7%
10% -24.2% 44% -63.5%
15% -31.5% 39% -67.1%
20% -38.2% 33% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$77 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$504
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $148 $147 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $41 +$57 +140%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $75 +$17 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 +$13 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $299 −$299 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$18 +101%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$2 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$23 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$29 +119%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $149 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $97 29h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $41 30h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (- BUY 11¢ $10 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. BUY 7¢ $16 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $75 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $75 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $12 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $18 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 55¢ $14 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $12 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $15 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $54 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $24 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $10 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $299 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $46 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $153 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $9 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.59 · official $146.59 (match) · 41 history records