Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9a5…2756 sports 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$367 (-4%) realized −$568 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%129W / 256L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$146
14 days−$291
30 days−$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$177
world 40% −$161
other 8% −$78
politics 5% −$35
crypto 4% −$65
finance 3% −$43
weather 0% −$14
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -2.3% -11.6% 19% 9% -13.1%
≤30d 297 -6.7% -15.6% 31% 26% -16.0%
≤90d 385 -4.3% -13.5% 34% 28% -15.6%
all 385 -4.3% -13.5% 34% 28% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 28% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 24% -23.6%
15% -29.3% 22% -31.0%
20% -36.2% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$568
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses129 / 256
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions1
Markets (closed)385 / 386
History coverage57d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrea del Boca win Big Brother Argentina 2026? No 97¢ 66¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Bruno Silva 54¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Foggia: Lucia Bronzetti vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Lucia Bronzetti 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $59 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $360 −$9 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $521 +$7 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $178 −$23 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $821 −$9 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 13 $21 $0 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $56 −$5 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $26 −$1 -5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 13 $93 −$6 -7%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$9 -18%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $17 −$3 -15%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 11 $45 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $34 +$4 +11%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 11 $49 −$5 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $61 −$4 -6%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 11 $43 −$5 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $182 −$8 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $143 −$9 -6%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9 −$2 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $394 −$52 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $34 −$3 -9%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -7%
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -11%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 10 $53 −$7 -12%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$2 -28%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -11%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $9 +$7 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 +$9 +104%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -7%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series Jun 08 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 08 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 08 $17 −$3 -15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 08 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 −$4 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $9 −$2 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 07 $21 −$4 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $18 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 26¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $179 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $169 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $0 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.93 · official $3.93 (match) · 2348 history records