Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9a9…5c31 crypto 1042 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$259 (+1%) realized +$242 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate69%719W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day118.1pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$168
14 days+$221
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$406
sports 35% +$153
other 2% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -3.8% -12.9% 72% 36% -6.4%
≤30d 1040 -3.2% -12.4% 69% 28% -11.2%
≤90d 1040 -3.2% -12.4% 69% 28% -11.2%
all 1040 -3.2% -12.4% 69% 28% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 28% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 20% -19.7%
15% -28.5% 15% -27.5%
20% -35.5% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses719 / 321
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1040 / 1042
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day118.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1040 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 82¢ $161 $166 +$5 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $151 $164 +$13 (+9%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $77 −$17 -23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $328 +$74 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $269 −$107 -40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $149 +$59 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $136 +$15 +11%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $79 +$24 +30%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $80 −$13 -16%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $79 +$22 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $83 +$16 +19%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $113 +$38 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $72 +$29 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $74 +$26 +34%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $159 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$28 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $78 +$22 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $73 +$28 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $33 +$17 +53%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $212 +$36 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 +$27 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $139 +$67 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $229 +$38 +17%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$57 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 87¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 49¢ $25 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $47 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $83 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $152 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $162 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $402 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $97 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $41 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $65 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $328 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $228 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $149 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $19 8h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $104 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $123 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 67¢ $67 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $80 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $79 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $7 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $3 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $6 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $12 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.21 · official $330.23 (match) · 3500 history records