Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9ae…9ed7 other 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$23
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 25% −$22
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$3
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage127d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $545 −$2 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $458 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $308 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $204 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $264 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $136 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $155 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $215 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $520 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $175 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $204 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $37 6h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $16 8h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 9h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 13h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 15h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 16h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 17h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 19h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 21h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 36h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 40h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 44h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $54 45h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1243 history records