Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9af…40c4 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$806 (-18%) realized −$769 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%24W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$525
14 days−$915
30 days−$936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$339
other 38% −$929
crypto 9% −$287
world 3% −$95
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -36.1% -42.2% 29% 27% -28.7%
≤30d 96 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 23% -29.9%
≤90d 96 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 23% -29.9%
all 96 -42.3% -47.8% 25% 23% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 23% -29.9%
10% -52.8% 22% -36.6%
15% -57.3% 21% -42.7%
20% -61.5% 16% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$30 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$769
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses24 / 72
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 102
History coverage16d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 66¢ $49 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$40 -78%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $245 −$118 -48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $62 +$16 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$28 +144%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $147 +$122 +83%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $29 −$3 -11%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $99 +$51 +52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $99 +$47 +47%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $99 −$43 -43%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $97 +$76 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $98 +$48 +49%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $96 +$144 +150%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $6 −$4 -66%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $14 −$3 -22%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $49 +$30 +61%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $40 −$33 -83%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $36 −$31 -87%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $24 −$22 -95%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $13 −$5 -38%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -58%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $19 +$40 +212%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $96 +$46 +48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $27 −$13 -48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$10 +68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $406 −$406 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $106 −$69 -65%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -78%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL 8¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 33¢ $127 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 7¢ $15 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 39¢ $78 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $97 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $49 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $47 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $48 7h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 7h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $48 7h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 36¢ $51 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $99 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $19 17h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $22 17h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $77 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 16¢ $21 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 20h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 27h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 56¢ $26 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $99 30h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $29 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.25 · official $179.25 · 293 history records