Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9b1…c5f3 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-32%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +14.0% +3.1% 67% 44% -39.0%
≤30d 9 +14.0% +3.1% 67% 44% -39.0%
≤90d 9 +14.0% +3.1% 67% 44% -39.0%
all 9 +14.0% +3.1% 67% 44% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 44% -39.0%
10% -6.7% 44% -44.8%
15% -15.7% 44% -50.2%
20% -24.0% 22% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.38 · official $12.38 (match) · 18 history records