Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa9b6…f4f2 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$18
politics 25% −$8
sports 5% −$42
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -3.9% -13.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 99 -3.9% -13.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage90d
Avg bet$282
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $309 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $283 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $285 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $290 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $289 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $287 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $294 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $286 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $863 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $304 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $303 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $290 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $284 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $277 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $298 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $293 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 11 $284 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $92 14h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 26h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $170 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 13d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $42 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $42 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $35 25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $73 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $35 25d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $106 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 28d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $63 29d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $63 29d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $294 34d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $294 34d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $270 35d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $270 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.65 · official $261.65 (match) · 274 history records