Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa9bb…cad6 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$266 (+8%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%93W / 90L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$257
14 days+$201
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$253
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +27.5% +15.4% 58% 58% +32.6%
≤30d 84 +11.1% +0.5% 56% 56% -5.7%
≤90d 183 +1.5% -8.2% 51% 50% -2.9%
all 183 +1.5% -8.2% 51% 50% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% -2.9%
10% -16.9% 49% -12.2%
15% -25.0% 47% -20.7%
20% -32.3% 42% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses93 / 90
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage58d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $12 +$12 +99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $13 −$12 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 15 $23 +$37 +157%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $12 +$11 +89%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $4 +$2 +62%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 15 $2 +$1 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $28 +$39 +140%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 14 $12 +$16 +128%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 −$32 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$20 +165%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$16 +143%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $117 +$194 +165%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $57 +$61 +107%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $27 +$30 +109%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 +$15 +121%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $12 +$14 +112%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $57 −$56 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $26 +$31 +119%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 +$14 +114%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $23 −$22 -98%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $12 +$11 +87%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 05 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 05 $12 +$14 +115%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $31 +$31 +101%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $12 +$19 +153%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $26 +$24 +93%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $12 +$14 +114%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $11 +$12 +109%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $58 +$48 +83%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $34 +$23 +67%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $21 +$14 +67%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs OG (+1.5) May 30 $12 +$8 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $12 −$12 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs Legacy (+2.5) May 24 $24 −$24 -98%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) May 24 $12 +$12 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $25 31m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 49¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $13 5h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $60 23h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $60 23h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $23 24h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $24 25h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $12 26h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $6 28h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $6 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $4 39h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage SELL Team Liquid 99¢ $4 39h
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage BUY Team Liquid 60¢ $2 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $28 43h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) SELL G2 100¢ $28 43h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) BUY G2 43¢ $12 46h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) BUY Vitality 54¢ $12 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $33 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 37¢ $12 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $12 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $12 4d
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 30¢ $27 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $27 4d
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $11 4d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $117 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $117 4d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY FURIA 48¢ $57 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $57 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records