Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9bc…d092 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$8
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% +$6
other 27% $0
culture 19% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% +$1
sports 6% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +8.5% -1.8% 50% 50% -2.5%
≤30d 11 +1.1% -8.6% 36% 18% -7.8%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.6% 36% 18% -7.8%
all 34 +0.5% -9.1% 35% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage301d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $31 +$5 +17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 +$3 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $25 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $67 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Aug 28 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $74 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 28 $7 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 27 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 285–299 times August 22–August 29? Aug 26 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $37 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $36 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $31 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $26 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $34 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $20 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $28 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $10 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $2 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $1 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $21 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $25 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records