Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9bd…e007 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$54 (-7%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$36
crypto 10% −$35
culture 1% −$6
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.9% -30.3% 27% 18% -8.5%
≤30d 12 -21.5% -29.0% 25% 17% -8.6%
≤90d 13 -20.8% -28.4% 23% 15% -8.8%
all 53 -41.5% -47.1% 21% 15% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 15% -17.3%
10% -52.2% 13% -25.2%
15% -56.8% 6% -32.4%
20% -61.0% 4% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage204d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $122 −$7 -6%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $172 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $62 −$31 -51%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 27 $6 −$5 -75%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $20 +$43 +212%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gran Mar 29 $25 −$19 -74%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Pr Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Mar 29 $20 −$18 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Mar 29 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 29 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 15 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $16 +$5 +33%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $17 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $8 −$3 -44%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 08 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 10 $5 +$1 +27%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 04 $7 −$6 -79%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 04 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 04 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 04 $9 +$3 +32%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 04 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 23¢ $63 40m
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 25¢ $72 56m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 80¢ $75 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 64¢ $61 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 62¢ $46 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 71¢ $69 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 51¢ $51 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 28¢ $51 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 7¢ $30 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 8¢ $4 24h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 90¢ $64 24h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 28¢ $20 24h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 63¢ $1 25h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 67¢ $1 25h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 16¢ $2 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 44¢ $1 14d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 45¢ $1 14d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 75¢ $11 14d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 55d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 55d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Gran SELL No 14¢ $3 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records