Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A9 0xa9bd…2106 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized −$9 · open +$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$254per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$615now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-3.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+0.2%	-9.3%	100%	0%	-9.3%
≤30d	2	+7.0%	-3.2%	100%	50%	-6.0%
≤90d	2	+7.0%	-3.2%	100%	50%	-6.0%
all	2	+7.0%	-3.2%	100%	50%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.2%	50%	-6.0%
10%	-12.5%	0%	-15.0%
15%	-20.9%	0%	-23.2%
20%	-28.7%	0%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$615

Realized−$9

Unrealized+$15

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage22d

Avg bet$254

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$600	$615	+$15 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26?	Jun 17	$105	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	May 26	$40	+$6	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$616	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26?	BUY Yes	100¢	$105	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	90¢	$5	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$5	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$5	22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$5	22d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.61 · official $614.61 (match) · 12 history records