Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9be…ab71 crypto 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$356 (+7%) realized +$356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%86W / 54L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$277
14 days+$277
30 days+$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$277
other 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -1.6% -11.0% 63% 53% -4.3%
≤30d 140 -3.8% -12.9% 61% 52% -5.4%
≤90d 140 -3.8% -12.9% 61% 52% -5.4%
all 140 -3.8% -12.9% 61% 52% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 52% -5.4%
10% -21.3% 39% -14.5%
15% -28.9% 22% -22.7%
20% -35.8% 14% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses86 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage30d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $94 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$18 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$9 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$11 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$7 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$6 +548%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $61 −$50 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $94 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 424 history records