Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa9bf…cef1 sports 140 markets active 3h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+11%) realized +$29 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%77W / 43L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$2
14 days+$8
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$27
other 43% $0
politics 3% −$2
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.5% -4.5% 56% 56% -13.2%
≤30d 65 +17.3% +6.2% 65% 63% +6.3%
≤90d 98 +12.4% +1.7% 65% 63% +3.3%
all 120 +9.4% -1.0% 64% 62% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 62% +1.0%
10% -10.5% 59% -8.6%
15% -19.1% 55% -17.5%
20% -27.1% 45% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses77 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)120 / 140
History coverage108d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 56¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+75%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 30¢ 41¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 51¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+253%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$1 -57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$1 -39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +92%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +108%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$1 +59%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$2 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $1 +$1 +108%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$2 +122%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $4 +$2 +61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$1 +105%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $4 +$2 +43%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 07 $1 +$1 +104%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 07 $2 +$1 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $1 +$1 +108%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +75%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 06 $4 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +54%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $3 +$2 +49%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $2 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 +$1 +64%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$1 +59%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $1 +$1 +122%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$1 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 12h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 12h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 24¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 64¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $2 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $3 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $2 30h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 60¢ $2 46h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $2 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $3 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 3d
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 44¢ $2 3d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 21¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $2 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $3 4d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $1 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 30¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.36 · official $91.31 (match) · 284 history records