Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:00:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9c0…c6f9 other 330 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$344 (-6%) realized −$387 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%158W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$46
14 days+$63
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$141
sports 39% −$129
crypto 6% −$85
world 1% +$13
economics 1% −$16
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.3% -21.5% 36% 36% -21.9%
≤30d 28 +10.7% +0.1% 61% 57% +3.2%
≤90d 150 -42.4% -47.8% 28% 27% -42.3%
all 321 -2.2% -11.5% 49% 48% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -15.8%
10% -19.9% 46% -23.8%
15% -27.7% 40% -31.2%
20% -34.8% 31% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized−$387
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses158 / 163
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)321 / 330
History coverage225d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+72%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$10 -31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$34 +140%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 −$6 -19%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$34 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$11 -23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $20 +$12 +57%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$21 +207%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $14 +$9 +66%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $15 +$8 +49%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? Apr 28 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $30 +$22 +73%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $40 −$21 -54%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 +$31 +307%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $30 +$14 +45%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $33 +$15 +45%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $25 +$22 +90%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $40 +$19 +49%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $40 +$20 +50%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $34 +$18 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $47 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $24 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $39 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $38 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $30 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 93¢ $58 11d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.99 · official $297.99 (match) · 716 history records