Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A9 0xa9c3…078f other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$92 (+6%) realized +$93 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%6W / 2L

Drawdown86%max

Avg bet$182per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+16.3%	+5.2%	75%	75%	-4.7%
≤30d	8	+16.3%	+5.2%	75%	75%	-4.7%
≤90d	8	+16.3%	+5.2%	75%	75%	-4.7%
all	8	+16.3%	+5.2%	75%	75%	-4.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.2%	75%	-4.7%
10%	-4.9%	62%	-13.8%
15%	-14.1%	50%	-22.1%
20%	-22.5%	12%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$50 vs −$111 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.35 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$176

Realized+$93

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses6 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage4d

Avg bet$182

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown86%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$177	$176	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$120	+$57	+48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$249	−$128	-52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$623	+$89	+14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$99	+$61	+62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$74	+$24	+33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$53	+$22	+42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$147	−$94	-64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$99	+$47	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$177	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$177	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$120	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	34¢	$121	9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$249	13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$249	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	95¢	$237	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	92¢	$237	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	87¢	$226	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	86¢	$225	31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$160	34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$160	34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$99	47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	72¢	$99	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$74	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	85¢	$75	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$53	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	28¢	$53	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$147	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$147	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$99	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.59 · official $175.59 (match) · 21 history records