Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9c4…fe8b crypto 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,014 (-15%) realized −$1,014 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%87W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$72
14 days−$72
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$225
other 28% +$162
sports 24% −$1,112
world 8% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 48% -22.5%
≤30d 23 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 48% -22.5%
≤90d 150 -12.3% -20.6% 47% 45% -41.8%
all 177 -11.1% -19.6% 49% 47% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 47% -24.5%
10% -27.3% 43% -31.7%
15% -34.3% 38% -38.3%
20% -40.7% 33% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$31 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$1,014
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses87 / 90
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage122d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19 +$10 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $34 +$10 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$16 +108%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $9 +$8 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8 +$11 +134%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$89 +217%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$9 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 23 $10 +$8 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 23 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 23 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 23 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 23 $18 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 23 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 23 $92 +$75 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 23 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 23 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 23 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 23 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 23 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 23 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $67 −$23 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 22 $41 +$30 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $44 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $34 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $15 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $17 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $29 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $32 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $16 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $130 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.88 · official $21.88 (match) · 415 history records