Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9c5…6179 politics 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$8
sports 15% −$2
other 7% $0
world 6% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -4.9% -14.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$558
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage235d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $168 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $168 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $229 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jan 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $479 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 14 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 31 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 2m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 4m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 3h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 3h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 10h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 12h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 12h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 15h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 16h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 16h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 17h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 19h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 26h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 26h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 28h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 28h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 30h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 34h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 39h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $557.76 · official $557.76 (match) · 93 history records