Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa9cf…c8b9 sports 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 454d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Covers last 454d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,911 (+35%) realized +$13,427 · open +$484
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%50W / 65L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$679est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 454d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,051
other 36% +$1,158
crypto 9% +$2,088
politics 1% −$81
finance 0% +$6
world 0% −$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 45% 34% -15.4%
≤30d 61 +0.7% -8.9% 39% 28% -13.3%
≤90d 97 +5.0% -5.0% 42% 34% -10.8%
all 115 +9.6% -0.8% 43% 35% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 35% -5.5%
10% -10.3% 33% -14.5%
15% -19.0% 26% -22.8%
20% -26.9% 23% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$88 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$817
Realized+$13,427
Unrealized+$484
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses50 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$679
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage454d ⚠
Avg bet$339
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 28¢ $332 $817 +$484 (+146%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $131 +$18 +13%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,988 −$536 -27%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $955 −$540 -56%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $434 −$67 -16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $733 −$175 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $856 −$216 -25%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $929 +$311 +34%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $447 −$329 -74%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $418 −$216 -52%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,147 +$179 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $207 −$175 -84%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $317 +$83 +26%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $406 +$9 +2%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $144 +$6 +4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $319 +$229 +72%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $595 +$165 +28%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 23 $11 +$3 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $196 −$135 -69%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $239 +$720 +301%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $29 +$7 +23%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $91 −$38 -42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $66 −$66 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $131 +$96 +73%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 20 $4,847 −$503 -10%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $99 −$24 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $184 +$129 +70%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $796 −$116 -15%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $160 +$431 +269%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1,058 −$259 -24%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $6 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Jun 17 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 17 $16 −$8 -49%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $148 +$102 +68%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 16 $700 −$111 -16%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $1,338 +$67 +5%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $219 +$177 +81%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $57 +$66 +116%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $16 −$15 -92%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 07 $143 −$15 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $97 0m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $5 2m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 28¢ $125 5m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $13 7m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $0 12m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 27¢ $3 14m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 27¢ $40 16m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 28¢ $14 17m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $11 17m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 28¢ $14 17m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $5 17m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $33 17m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 28¢ $14 17m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $175 18m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $13 18m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $61 18m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $98 18m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $1 19m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $11 19m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $285 23m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $2 24m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 28¢ $173 24m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 28¢ $666 24m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 27¢ $19 25m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 28¢ $7 25m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 27¢ $646 26m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 33¢ $20 28m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 33¢ $15 28m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 34m
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 21¢ $0 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $816.79 · official $816.79 (match) · 3500 history records