Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d0…530b other 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%8W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$2
politics 22% −$2
other 22% −$11
crypto 8% −$3
economics 7% −$1
tech 5% −$1
world 4% $0
culture 4% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 181 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses8 / 173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage172d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $119 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 18 $26 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $30 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $150 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $26 14d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $26 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $37 26d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $37 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? SELL No 95¢ $26 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? BUY No 96¢ $26 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 91¢ $4 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? SELL No 92¢ $32 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 92¢ $4 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY No 92¢ $32 126d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $16 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 94¢ $18 126d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $16 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 95¢ $17 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 95¢ $35 126d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 126d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 126d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $35 126d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $35 126d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $36 126d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $36 126d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $31 126d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $31 126d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 126d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $36 126d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $36 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.09 · official $32.09 (match) · 607 history records