Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:11:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A9 0xa9d7…8602 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+3%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$25
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$25
sports 30% +$57
crypto 11% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 40% 40% -14.4%
≤30d 12 -18.0% -25.9% 42% 42% -5.7%
≤90d 41 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 37% -7.7%
all 41 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 37% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 37% -7.7%
10% -26.2% 37% -16.5%
15% -33.3% 32% -24.6%
20% -39.9% 22% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage58d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $89 −$4 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$32 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 −$104 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $101 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$55 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $88 +$23 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $41 +$50 +122%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $39 −$39 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 26 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 26 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 26 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 26 $2 +$9 +448%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 26 $2 +$6 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 25 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 25 $2 +$3 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $85 42m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $85 43m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $89 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $97 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $65 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $111 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $88 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $2 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $90 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 38¢ $25 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $15 8d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall SELL Fury 99¢ $141 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $39 9d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 70¢ $101 9d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 58d
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $15 58d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.27 · official $84.28 (match) · 83 history records