Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A9 0xa9d7…df6e sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$62 (+9%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate77%17W / 5L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$39
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$28
sports 39% +$127
politics 7% +$14
finance 4% −$30
other 3% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -9.3% -18.0% 80% 60% -22.7%
≤90d 15 -15.5% -23.6% 67% 47% -15.1%
all 22 +13.7% +2.9% 77% 64% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 64% -1.1%
10% -7.0% 50% -10.6%
15% -15.9% 45% -19.2%
20% -24.2% 32% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses17 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage137d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $43 −$43 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $27 +$4 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $41 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $32 +$6 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $56 +$2 +3%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 06 $85 +$3 +4%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 23 $38 +$25 +67%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 14 $32 +$22 +70%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Vera Zvonareva vs Shuai Zhang Mar 30 $19 −$19 -100%
76ers vs. Lakers Mar 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 27 $34 +$15 +45%
Thunder vs. Magic Mar 24 $30 +$8 +27%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 17 $34 +$19 +56%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 13 $17 +$8 +45%
Celtics vs. Lakers Feb 26 $14 +$13 +89%
LoL: Solary vs French Flair (BO1) - LFL Invitational Super Group Feb 22 $16 +$20 +127%
Thunder vs. Suns Feb 18 $15 +$7 +43%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 11 $15 +$15 +96%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 11 $19 +$15 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $43 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 86¢ $27 16d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $36 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 95¢ $41 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $56 43d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 97¢ $85 56d
Avalanche vs. Flames BUY Avalanche 60¢ $38 65d
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs BUY Capitals 59¢ $32 71d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? BUY Down 58¢ $30 76d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $21 82d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Nuggets 69¢ $34 86d
Thunder vs. Magic BUY Thunder 79¢ $30 93d
Suns vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 64¢ $34 96d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 107d
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? BUY No 69¢ $17 112d
Celtics vs. Lakers BUY Celtics 53¢ $14 115d
LoL: Solary vs French Flair (BO1) - LFL Invitational Super Group BUY French Flair 44¢ $16 120d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 70¢ $15 127d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $19 131d
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Vera Zvonareva vs Shuai Zhang BUY Zhang 73¢ $19 132d
76ers vs. Lakers BUY 76ers 39¢ $12 133d
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) BUY Seahawks 51¢ $15 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.02 · official $44.02 (match) · 46 history records