Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9d7…03d2 world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3
politics 21% $0
other 20% $0
sports 15% −$13
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 35% 0% -9.6%
all 63 -1.8% -11.2% 35% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage485d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $52 +$3 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $108 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $35 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $26 −$3 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $78 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $123 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $207 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $3 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $2 $0 +10%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $138 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 09 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $37 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 05 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 32¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $25 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $7 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $1 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $13 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $22 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $32 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.68 · official $36.20 (match) · 282 history records