Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A9 0xa9db…33e4 sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,060 (+4%) realized +$15,060 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate82%53W / 12L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$5,186per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1,172est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days−$277
14 days+$159
30 days+$4,645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$17,952
other 20% −$3,336
world 0% −$163
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 35% -9.8%
≤30d 23 +1.6% -8.1% 87% 43% -6.8%
≤90d 64 +1.1% -8.6% 81% 34% -5.6%
all 65 +1.4% -8.3% 82% 35% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 35% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 11% -14.7%
15% -25.1% 5% -22.9%
20% -32.4% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$8,116) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$542 vs −$1,299 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses53 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1,172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage92d
Avg bet$5,186
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8,116 +$530 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3,015 −$2,856 -95%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $10,358 +$218 +2%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $1,950 +$547 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10,993 +$156 +1%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $3,186 +$1,195 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9,710 +$311 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $138 +$13 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8,991 +$667 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,877 +$1,133 +14%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $7,342 +$538 +7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4,610 +$2,732 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11,000 −$6,391 -58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,703 +$286 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $2,232 +$284 +13%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2,876 +$622 +22%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $269 −$262 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3,560 +$436 +12%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $11,006 +$482 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $3,870 +$1,033 +27%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 28 $11,094 +$1,355 +12%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $10,450 +$539 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $8,794 +$1,077 +12%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $11,001 +$1,363 +12%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $744 +$119 +16%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $10,160 +$1,694 +17%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $4,026 +$1,065 +26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 17 $200 −$16 -8%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $10,017 +$572 +6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $10,125 +$413 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $4,036 +$294 +7%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $8,839 +$991 +11%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $5,718 +$125 +2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $9,908 −$948 -10%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $4,106 +$203 +5%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $6,035 +$508 +8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $209 −$27 -13%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $7,224 +$750 +10%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $7,313 +$436 +6%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $5,100 +$681 +13%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $6,007 +$1,089 +18%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $5,337 +$647 +12%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Apr 27 $200 +$9 +4%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $5,217 +$132 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $4,942 +$289 +6%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $4,366 +$576 +13%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $4,000 −$2,670 -67%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 17 $6,925 +$134 +2%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $4,290 +$304 +7%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $5,476 +$124 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,646 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $5,407 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $159 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,709 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $3,015 1h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $4,560 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $1 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $2 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $3,894 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $5 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $1,940 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom SELL Seattle Orcas 97¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 481 history records