Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A9 0xa9de…9353 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$22
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1
sports 16% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.1% -17.8% 56% 56% -7.2%
≤30d 19 -13.9% -22.1% 53% 53% -9.2%
≤90d 19 -13.9% -22.1% 53% 53% -9.2%
all 19 -13.9% -22.1% 53% 53% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 53% -9.2%
10% -29.6% 47% -17.9%
15% -36.4% 42% -25.8%
20% -42.6% 26% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage7d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $181 +$82 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $130 +$14 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$32 +63%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $19 −$19 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$17 -94%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$9 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$93 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 28m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $181 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $81 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 73¢ $20 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $15 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $130 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $82 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $19 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $18 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $9 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.58 · official $120.58 (match) · 34 history records