Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9e1…c814 world 88 markets active 5d ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized −$64 · open +$80
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 59L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$71
economics 35% −$10
sports 9% −$24
politics 9% −$5
world 6% +$109
crypto 2% −$15
tech 0% −$10
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 38 -11.1% -19.5% 8% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 40 -14.1% -22.3% 8% 0% -14.7%
all 85 -11.2% -19.7% 31% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 7% -9.8%
10% -27.4% 6% -18.5%
15% -34.4% 4% -26.4%
20% -40.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage516d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $142 $200 +$58 (+41%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 43¢ 69¢ $43 $69 +$26 (+60%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 11¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $33 −$4 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $29 −$2 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $14 −$3 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $37 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 12 $50 $0 -1%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $19 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -4%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 24 $47 +$2 +3%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 24 $6 −$3 -51%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 24 $30 $0 -2%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 24 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 24 $8 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 24 $57 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $190 −$3 -2%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? May 24 $5 $0 -7%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 24 $26 −$1 -5%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $9 −$4 -49%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $4 $0 +8%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 24 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In May 24 $9 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $300 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $24 −$3 -13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $16 −$16 -99%
Natural Disaster in 2026? Apr 29 $40 −$17 -43%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Mar 15 $34 +$56 +165%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 15 $74 $0 +0%
Another US bank failure by March 31? Mar 15 $8 −$2 -19%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 15 $124 −$8 -6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Mar 15 $34 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 15 $24 $0 +0%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 23 $44 +$2 +3%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Feb 21 $42 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Feb 05 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? SELL No 52¢ $10 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL No 87¢ $44 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 88¢ $44 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 30¢ $6 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $6 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 54¢ $11 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 42¢ $8 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 92¢ $46 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $46 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes $4 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 46¢ $9 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 24¢ $5 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 55¢ $11 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL Yes 45¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.41 · official $276.22 (match) · 304 history records