Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A9 0xa9e3…706f sports 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,914 (+1%) realized +$2,741 · open +$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%242W / 104L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$916per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$991est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$6,846
14 days−$13,349
30 days−$11,340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$989
other 29% −$278
world 8% +$1,079
crypto 2% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -4.6% -13.7% 63% 55% -15.8%
≤30d 202 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 58% -17.2%
≤90d 320 -5.0% -14.0% 68% 53% -11.5%
all 346 -2.5% -11.8% 70% 54% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 54% -8.7%
10% -20.2% 34% -17.4%
15% -27.9% 18% -25.4%
20% -35.0% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$387 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$3,173
Realized+$2,741
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses242 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$991
Open positions1
Markets (closed)346 / 348
History coverage233d
Avg bet$916
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $3,000 $3,173 +$173 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $200 −$56 -28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,221 +$748 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,342 −$4,439 -70%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $101 +$39 +39%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,842 +$1,838 +38%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,217 +$639 +15%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $7,481 +$1,383 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,687 −$2,779 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $457 +$273 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,000 +$218 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,009 −$2,683 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$92 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $705 −$56 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $500 +$10 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$147 +73%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $707 +$125 +18%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $805 −$167 -21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $504 −$358 -71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,006 −$884 -88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $501 +$32 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$46 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $503 +$120 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,606 +$217 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $402 +$102 +25%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $303 +$151 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $302 +$116 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,006 +$46 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,005 +$170 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $302 −$35 -12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $705 +$15 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $203 −$140 -69%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,831 −$1,805 -37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,507 +$285 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,509 +$582 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $402 +$79 +20%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $405 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $705 −$259 -37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $352 +$86 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,307 +$277 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $144 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $400 −$15 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $605 +$201 +33%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $203 +$169 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $3,020 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $144 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $2,969 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,221 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,903 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $4,026 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,316 4h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $6,622 15h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $59 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4,842 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $4,217 22h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 82¢ $4,212 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1,822 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 39¢ $203 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $730 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $905 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 85¢ $452 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 20¢ $411 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $1,413 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $315 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $292 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $595 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,504 2d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,652 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,173.08 · official $3,173.08 (match) · 1238 history records