Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A9 0xa9e5…753a other 72 markets active 2d ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$597 (+14%) realized +$641 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +131% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +93% what you keep after slip
Net edge+93%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$615
14 days+$541
30 days+$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$460
sports 50% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+108.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +57.7% +42.7% 31% 31% +24.8%
≤30d 67 +130.8% +108.8% 37% 37% +2.2%
≤90d 67 +130.8% +108.8% 37% 37% +2.2%
all 67 +130.8% +108.8% 37% 37% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +108.8% 37% +2.2%
10% +88.8% 36% -7.5%
15% +70.6% 36% -16.5%
20% +53.9% 36% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +131% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +239% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$36 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$641
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions5
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage20d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $34 $42 +$9 (+26%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $51 $34 −$18 (-34%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $31 $13 −$18 (-58%)
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $27 $11 −$16 (-58%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2 −$1 -98%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 18 $78 +$60 +77%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Daniel Muñoz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 18 $88 −$87 -99%
Will Cristian Romero be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 18 $47 −$26 -56%
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $197 −$5 -3%
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $26 +$125 +478%
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $40 +$93 +229%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $45 +$143 +318%
Will Gonzalo Montiel be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $16 +$115 +705%
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $28 +$36 +132%
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $4 +$33 +746%
Will Timothy Castagne be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $96 +$73 +76%
Will Maxim De Cuyper be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $58 +$89 +154%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $19 +$3 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $29 +$31 +108%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Hiroki Ito be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Tsuyoshi Watanabe be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Ko Itakura be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $31 +$342 +1094%
Will Takehiro Tomiyasu be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $96 +$275 +286%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 14 $3 +$36 +1137%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ché Adams: 1+ goals Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
John McGinn: 1+ goals Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Endrick be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $12 −$7 -63%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $12 +$25 +212%
Will Igor Thiago be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $15 +$105 +720%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $16 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $0 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 64¢ $192 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $197 2d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $16 2d
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $16 2d
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Will Uruguay be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group S BUY Yes 17¢ $34 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 9¢ $2 3d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $24 3d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 3d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.86 · official $99.51 · 273 history records