Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9e6…0706 other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$41
sports 21% −$21
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$8
world 5% $0
crypto 5% −$4
economics 4% −$4
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage132d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $243 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $353 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $410 −$2 -1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $496 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $194 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $364 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $606 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $356 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $174 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $735 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 5h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 9h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 11h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 18h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 20h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 21h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 33h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 35h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 36h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 39h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 41h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 42h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 44h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 45h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 46h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.75 · official $45.75 (match) · 1376 history records