Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9e7…ed80 weather 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$593 (-3%) realized −$593 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate19%22W / 94L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$203
14 days−$469
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$378
weather 25% −$469
other 5% +$128
sports 2% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.9% -13.0% 7% 1% -15.7%
≤30d 96 -3.8% -12.9% 6% 1% -16.9%
≤90d 103 -6.1% -15.0% 10% 1% -20.3%
all 116 -4.0% -13.2% 19% 4% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 4% -12.3%
10% -21.5% 3% -20.7%
15% -29.1% 1% -28.4%
20% -36.0% 1% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$19 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$593
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses22 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage131d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? Jun 29 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? Jun 29 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 30? Jun 29 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? Jun 29 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? Jun 29 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? Jun 29 $101 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 30? Jun 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 30? Jun 29 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? Jun 29 $77 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 30? Jun 29 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 30? Jun 29 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? Jun 29 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? Jun 28 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 30? Jun 28 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 29? Jun 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 29? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 29? Jun 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 29? Jun 28 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29? Jun 28 $13 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? Jun 28 $129 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $58 −$12 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 29? Jun 28 $25 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 29? Jun 28 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 29? Jun 28 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 29? Jun 27 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28? Jun 27 $31 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 28? Jun 27 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? Jun 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 28? Jun 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28? Jun 27 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Jun 27 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 28? Jun 27 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 24 $24 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? Jun 24 $365 −$24 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 24 $22 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? SELL No 50¢ $51 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 51¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 51¢ $52 12m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? SELL No 79¢ $16 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? BUY No 79¢ $11 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? BUY No 79¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 43m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? SELL No 69¢ $99 57m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 30? BUY No 69¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 30? SELL No 85¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 494 history records