Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa9ec…ac3e politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1
politics 30% +$1
crypto 14% $0
economics 13% +$1
tech 4% −$1
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +35.6% +22.7% 100% 50% +1.8%
≤30d 2 +35.6% +22.7% 100% 50% +1.8%
≤90d 2 +35.6% +22.7% 100% 50% +1.8%
all 2 +35.6% +22.7% 100% 50% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.7% 50% +1.8%
10% +11.0% 50% -8.0%
15% +0.2% 50% -16.8%
20% -9.6% 50% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2 / 14
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 86¢ 88¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 75¢ 77¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 40¢ $26 $20 −$6 (-23%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 66¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-13%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 25 $22 +$1 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $24 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $27 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 44¢ $24 7h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 75¢ $7 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $8 13h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 75¢ $35 38h
Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 40h
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-38 House seat? BUY Yes 95¢ $39 2d
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 2d
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 74¢ $20 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $13 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $33 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $21 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $49 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 4d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 38¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $3 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.78 · official $352.18 (match) · 30 history records