Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9ed…06e6 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-58%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$45
14 days−$46
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$41
sports 8% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-59.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -45.9% -51.1% 30% 30% -85.6%
≤30d 12 -55.0% -59.2% 25% 25% -86.2%
≤90d 12 -55.0% -59.2% 25% 25% -86.2%
all 12 -55.0% -59.2% 25% 25% -86.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.2% 25% -86.2%
10% -63.1% 25% -87.5%
15% -66.7% 25% -88.7%
20% -70.0% 17% -89.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage15d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 14h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 31h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 31h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.80 · official $24.80 (match) · 16 history records