Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9ee…d0a8 crypto 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%51W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$30
other 13% −$1
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -17.6% -25.5% 56% 44% -18.0%
≤30d 91 -11.2% -19.6% 56% 44% -13.4%
≤90d 91 -11.2% -19.6% 56% 44% -13.4%
all 91 -11.2% -19.6% 56% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 44% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 33% -21.7%
15% -34.3% 25% -29.3%
20% -40.8% 15% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses51 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage10d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$8 +96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $41 +$3 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Alexis Vega: 1+ shots Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$13 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 09 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $19 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $28 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $4 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $3 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.56 · official $8.56 (match) · 385 history records