Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:09:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa9f4…200d other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1
world 34% −$2
weather 7% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
politics 6% −$2
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 4 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
all 18 -6.5% -15.4% 33% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -11.3%
10% -23.5% 0% -19.8%
15% -30.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage450d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $4 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $30 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $6 $0 +8%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 05 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 09 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 02 $23 −$2 -7%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $32 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $32 1h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $16 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $13 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $30 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $24 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $6 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $4 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $4 29d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 361d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 381d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 80¢ $6 382d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 83¢ $6 382d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 385d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 422d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $20 436d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $20 436d
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? SELL No 98¢ $20 437d
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? BUY No 98¢ $20 437d
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? SELL No 97¢ $19 438d
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? BUY No 98¢ $20 439d
Will Solana reach $190 in April? SELL No 95¢ $20 439d
Will Solana reach $190 in April? BUY No 98¢ $21 439d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $21 439d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $21 441d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $21 441d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $21 441d
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY No 99¢ $20 444d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records