Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9f9…5273 sports 474 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$227 (+1%) realized +$280 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%190W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$386est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days+$110
14 days+$275
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$863
other 8% −$1,015
politics 1% +$51
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$50
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -12.7% -21.0% 45% 41% -7.9%
≤30d 445 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 36% -9.1%
≤90d 446 -16.5% -24.5% 42% 36% -9.1%
all 457 -17.9% -25.7% 42% 36% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 36% -9.3%
10% -32.8% 30% -18.0%
15% -39.3% 26% -25.9%
20% -45.2% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$34 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$280
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses190 / 267
Est. fees paid−$386
Open positions17
Markets (closed)457 / 474
History coverage92d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Minnesota Lynx 58¢ 56¢ $187 $183 −$4 (-2%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Toronto Tempo 56¢ 50¢ $187 $166 −$22 (-12%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 86¢ 100¢ $110 $128 +$18 (+16%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 62¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+103%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? No 16¢ 13¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 6¢ 5¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 19¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$25 (-98%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 19 $117 −$46 -39%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $18 −$11 -62%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $21 +$4 +17%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $50 −$13 -26%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $12 +$1 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $118 −$116 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 19 $13 +$2 +16%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $127 −$24 -19%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 19 $81 +$32 +40%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 Jun 19 $14 −$7 -48%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $115 +$160 +140%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $18 −$4 -26%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $122 +$136 +111%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $116 −$114 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $118 +$52 +44%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $29 −$24 -81%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $22 −$4 -17%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $65 −$55 -85%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 18 $117 +$78 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $116 −$115 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $11 +$12 +114%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $120 +$29 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $133 −$132 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$3 -8%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $75 −$3 -4%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $13 +$3 +23%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $32 +$16 +50%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $43 −$9 -22%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 18 $12 +$1 +5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $17 −$12 -71%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $13 +$2 +16%
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 18 $58 +$36 +62%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $123 +$62 +50%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $17 +$8 +46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 19¢ $26 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 86¢ $110 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 58¢ $190 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $190 4h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Athletics 65¢ $47 16h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $35 16h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 90¢ $6 16h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 47¢ $118 16h
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $36 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 28¢ $11 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 36¢ $9 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 88¢ $40 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 78¢ $12 18h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 94¢ $12 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 24¢ $4 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $33 18h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 18h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 32¢ $16 19h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 36¢ $7 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 62¢ $12 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 46¢ $12 19h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 86¢ $5 19h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 86¢ $9 19h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 86¢ $89 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 87¢ $5 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 41¢ $115 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 43¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $603.89 · official $607.40 (match) · 1441 history records