Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa9fd…9dfa other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$1,068per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$13
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$169
politics 38% −$54
sports 15% −$82
world 2% −$7
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 123 -1.6% -11.0% 16% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 11% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 10% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,325) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$9 · ×5.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,068
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $343 $342 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $315 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $545 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $320 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,159 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2,662 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,362 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,232 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,245 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,924 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $5,710 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,990 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $316 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 04 $494 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $348 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,278 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $3,431 −$4 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $3,630 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,040 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,639 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,117 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,202 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,867 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,225 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,428 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $1,132 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,460 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $2,205 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $2,880 −$3 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $974 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $343 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $314 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $315 5h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $342 28h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $343 31h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $544 46h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $545 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $320 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $320 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $342 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $343 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $586 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $536 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $536 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $672 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $673 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,144 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,145 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,126 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,136 15d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,170 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,222 20d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,224 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,241 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.41 · official $342.41 (match) · 422 history records