Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

AA 0xaa00…7e28 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$39 (+18%) realized +$0 · open +$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-18.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-9.4%	-18.0%	0%	0%	-18.0%
≤90d	1	-9.4%	-18.0%	0%	0%	-18.0%
all	1	-9.4%	-18.0%	0%	0%	-18.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.0%	0%	-18.0%
10%	-25.8%	0%	-25.8%
15%	-33.0%	0%	-33.0%
20%	-39.6%	0%	-39.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$2 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage

Net worth$199

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$39

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage19d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	21¢	$49	$89	+$39 (+80%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$51	$50	−$1 (-2%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	No	97¢	100¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	99¢	100¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 13	$16	−$2	-9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$53	1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	2d
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	BUY Yes	76¢	$30	2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	BUY No	97¢	$5	7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	BUY No	99¢	$5	7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	11d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will P	BUY	19¢	$26	11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	33¢	$15	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	36¢	$15	15d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	39¢	$16	19d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.44 · official $199.44 (match) · 21 history records