Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa06…b796 sports 690 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%645W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$34
14 days−$23
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$48
weather 25% +$33
crypto 18% +$14
other 7% +$2
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 8% -7.1%
≤30d 210 -2.5% -11.8% 90% 9% -10.0%
≤90d 555 -1.1% -10.6% 93% 4% -9.6%
all 689 -1.2% -10.6% 94% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses645 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)689 / 690
History coverage99d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $43 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? Jun 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $34 +$7 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $47 −$12 -26%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Jun 23 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $37 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 23 $34 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $27 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 18? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 87¢ $43 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 98¢ $43 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 10h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $43 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 11h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $41 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $41 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? SELL No 74¢ $35 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $47 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $47 21h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $46 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $46 22h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $46 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 26h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 27h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 30h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 30h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 95¢ $37 33h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 91¢ $34 41h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.45 · official $50.45 (match) · 1545 history records