Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa07…2125 sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (236 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$715,513 (+67%) realized +$718,230 · open −$2,717
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 46L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$9,941per market
Trades / day236.5pace
Fees−$11,005est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$147,045now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$213,469
other 25% −$52,689
world 1% −$6,050
crypto 0% −$7
weather 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (236 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 38% -12.4%
≤30d 86 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 45% +6.2%
≤90d 86 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 45% +6.2%
all 86 -2.1% -11.4% 47% 45% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover236.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 45% +6.2%
10% -19.9% 43% -4.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.7% 41% -13.3%
20% -34.7% 35% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$14,556) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
25.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,937 vs −$7,827 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$147,045
Realized+$718,230
Unrealized−$2,717
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$11,005
Open positions23
Markets (closed)86 / 107
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$9,941
Trades / day236.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 44¢ $23,000 $22,250 −$750 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21,366 $20,653 −$712 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $19,220 $19,290 +$70 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $17,165 $17,193 +$28 (+0%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 60¢ 56¢ $15,000 $14,122 −$878 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 80¢ $9,020 $8,753 −$267 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $7,967 $7,870 −$97 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,670 $5,932 +$262 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5,412 $5,724 +$312 (+6%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 55¢ $4,676 $4,615 −$61 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes $4,000 $4,500 +$500 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,564 $4,450 −$114 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,550 $4,225 −$325 (-7%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,800 $1,575 −$225 (-12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,500 $1,250 −$250 (-17%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $987 $997 +$10 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 54¢ 55¢ $878 $886 +$8 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 82¢ $758 $834 +$76 (+10%)
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $455 $469 +$15 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $720 $420 −$300 (-42%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $419 $415 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 39¢ $341 $334 −$7 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 56¢ $293 $285 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Frederik Andersen win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9,704 +$5,296 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3,412 +$1,558 +46%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $338 −$338 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $22,360 −$22,167 -99%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 22 $2,897 −$2,881 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19,683 −$19,277 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $2,364 −$2,325 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $11,297 −$11,059 -98%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $4,421 +$1,006 +23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18,378 −$18,113 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $25,144 −$24,604 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $551 −$541 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10,431 −$10,250 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $13,936 −$13,750 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10,270 +$89,730 +874%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,557 −$1,518 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20,889 +$53,394 +256%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $14,556 +$13,058 +90%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1,650 −$1,650 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $92 +$46 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $9,195 −$8,994 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $12,466 +$12,097 +97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $11,560 +$6,343 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28,368 −$27,929 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1,008 −$991 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $8,454 +$5,396 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8,475 −$8,323 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $9,503 −$9,305 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $7,035 +$3,219 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13,500 −$13,500 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,045 +$7,946 +79%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $830 +$715 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $7,200 −$7,200 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$12 +100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $9,400 −$9,400 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,599 −$3,510 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $1,770 −$1,743 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $827 −$821 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $32,500 −$32,500 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15,460 +$9,591 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18,800 +$21,200 +113%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $367 +$1,128 +307%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $7,210 +$6,459 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $251 +$149 +60%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $32,859 +$23,089 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $656 13m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 15m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $8 21m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 22m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 22m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 26m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $35 27m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 27m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 30m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $8 31m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $21 33m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 36m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 37m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 38m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 40m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $33 41m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 43m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $17 45m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 48m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 48m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $14 49m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 50m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 59m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $47 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147,044.69 · official $147,047.25 (match) · 3500 history records