Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AA 0xaa07…d6fa sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,674 (+48%) realized +$3,674 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,666
other 35% +$1,098
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 43% +33.0%
≤30d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 43% +33.0%
≤90d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 43% +33.0%
all 14 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 43% +33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 43% +33.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 43% +20.3%
15% -20.1% 43% +8.7%
20% -27.9% 36% -2.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$734 vs −$205 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,674
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland w Jun 18 $851 −$851 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $495 +$398 +80%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 −$9 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $870 +$396 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$356 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,004 +$1,656 +165%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $296 −$288 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $220 +$853 +388%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,032 +$743 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland w SELL 0¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 53¢ $13 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 56¢ $779 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $785 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $108 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $495 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 51¢ $292 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 51¢ $203 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 51¢ $624 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 49¢ $558 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $234 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,266 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 6h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY 3¢ $21 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 9¢ $41 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $870 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $62 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 31h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 41h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 41h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $2,659 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $4 46h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $1,000 46h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $90 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1,596.12 · 43 history records