Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa0a…69a2 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$368 (-3%) realized −$358 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate28%37W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$394
14 days−$310
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$29
other 25% −$150
tech 16% −$10
sports 6% −$83
politics 6% −$8
economics 6% −$11
crypto 3% −$10
culture 1% −$21
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -31.0% -37.6% 10% 10% -46.9%
≤30d 57 +10.6% +0.1% 11% 7% -23.3%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 4% -12.7%
all 130 +1.5% -8.1% 28% 7% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 7% -12.2%
10% -16.9% 5% -20.6%
15% -24.9% 5% -28.3%
20% -32.3% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized−$358
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses37 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)130 / 139
History coverage161d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $403 $400 −$3 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $108 $104 −$3 (-3%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $349 −$344 -99%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 24 $8 −$2 -19%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 24 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico Jun 24 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $333 +$167 +50%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $263 +$287 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $168 −$165 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $2 $0 -20%
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa Jun 18 $4 −$1 -34%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 18 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $19 $0 -1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $2 +$85 +4141%
Will Colombia finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 07 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$3 -25%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $27 −$8 -28%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $27 −$9 -33%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $16 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -30%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $115 −$3 -3%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $3 $0 -15%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 03 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 03 $8 $0 +4%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 03 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 10 Jun 03 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 03 $77 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $28 −$5 -19%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? Jun 03 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 03 $20 −$2 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 31 $114 −$6 -6%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 31 $24 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $408 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $110 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $149 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $349 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil SELL No 46¢ $9 4d
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 7¢ $3 4d
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 8¢ $4 4d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Scotland vs Brazil BUY No 46¢ $9 4d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico SELL Yes 64¢ $13 4d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl SELL No 35¢ $7 4d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico SELL Yes 79¢ $16 4d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl BUY No 42¢ $8 4d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico BUY Yes 89¢ $18 4d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico BUY Yes 66¢ $13 4d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico SELL Yes 60¢ $12 4d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 40+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico BUY Yes 67¢ $13 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $333 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $168 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $263 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY 2¢ $2 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina w BUY 4¢ $2 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY 3¢ $2 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 5¢ $2 9d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day SELL No 10¢ $2 10d
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa SELL No 13¢ $3 10d
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Canada vs Qa BUY No 19¢ $4 10d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 12¢ $2 10d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl SELL No 20¢ $4 10d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY No 30¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.70 · official $506.70 (match) · 447 history records