Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AA 0xaa0b…2deb sports 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,473 (+1%) realized +$2,144 · open −$671
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%105W / 130L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$1,811est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,614
7 days−$3,418
14 days−$3,157
30 days+$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$185
other 1% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -6.2% -15.1% 45% 42% -17.0%
≤30d 235 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 43% -9.3%
≤90d 235 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 43% -9.3%
all 235 -9.3% -17.9% 45% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 43% -9.3%
10% -25.8% 39% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -33.0% 36% -25.9%
20% -39.5% 30% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$746) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$546 vs −$439 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$2,144
Unrealized−$671
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses105 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,811
Open positions3
Markets (closed)235 / 238
History coverage23d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 30¢ 30¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 0¢ $638 $1 −$637 (-100%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 10¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $552 −$552 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $502 −$502 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $1,220 +$693 +57%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $277 −$277 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,334 −$1,334 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $57 +$143 +249%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $191 +$75 +40%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $347 +$137 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $745 +$721 +97%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $480 +$267 +56%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $134 +$9 +7%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $586 +$314 +54%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $1,829 −$1,829 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 14 $493 −$493 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $608 +$303 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $600 +$193 +32%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $227 −$227 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $942 −$942 -100%
Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5) Jun 14 $138 +$145 +105%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $651 −$651 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $481 +$1,973 +410%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$149 +291%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $809 −$809 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $161 −$161 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,376 −$1,376 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $557 −$557 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $901 +$24 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $758 +$161 +21%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $312 +$247 +79%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,738 +$1,437 +83%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $221 +$1,566 +710%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $849 +$3,033 +357%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $19 +$10 +50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $92 +$57 +62%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 11¢ $18 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 34¢ $259 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 34¢ $79 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 31¢ $83 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 34¢ $83 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $67 4h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $651 5h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $192 16h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $180 16h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $180 16h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $141 17h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 100¢ $1,914 17h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 63¢ $224 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 63¢ $996 18h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 64¢ $188 20h
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Grey Trac 40¢ $35 26h
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Grey Trac 47¢ $134 26h
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Grey Trac 47¢ $134 26h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $200 38h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 28¢ $57 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $452 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $881 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $277 40h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 44¢ $126 40h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 33¢ $67 41h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 33¢ $13 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $266 41h
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $484 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,466 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.95 · official $67.95 (match) · 835 history records