Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AA 0xaa0c…5034 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-7%) realized −$153 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$308
sports 40% −$335
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +31.4% +18.9% 38% 38% -10.9%
≤30d 26 +31.4% +18.9% 38% 38% -10.9%
≤90d 26 +31.4% +18.9% 38% 38% -10.9%
all 26 +31.4% +18.9% 38% 38% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 38% -10.9%
10% +7.5% 38% -19.4%
15% -2.9% 38% -27.2%
20% -12.4% 38% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late +128% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$50 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$602
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions11
Markets (closed)26 / 49
History coverage3d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $51 +$99 +195%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$43 +84%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$113 +550%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $21 +$104 +510%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 +$92 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$46 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Jap BUY $21 47m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côt BUY $21 48m
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côt BUY $21 50m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 14¢ $21 56m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 38¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 57¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on BUY 13¢ $21 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $51 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 24h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.52 · official $771.53 · 62 history records